With Japan's heavy reliance on sea borne trade and import of natural resources, as well as heavy foreign direct investment within the region, any activity in the South China Sea region that would impact major sea lanes or prevent the timely shipment of goods and oil would have drastic effects on Japan. Below are scenarios and consequences for Japan regarding its shipping interests in the South China Sea region.

The following are threats that could potentially lead to any of the below situations.

Natural disasters
Man-made disasters
Restrictions to passage due to excessive claims of sovereign or jurisdictional rights
Transnational crimes at sea (including piracy and robbery)
Terrorist acts at sea or in port
International or internal armed conflicts

In his report on the structural weaknesses and threats in the sea lanes, Kazumine Akimoto argues that the blocking of sea lanes in the South China Sea could have drastic economic consequences for Japan.

Block in Malacca Strait
Ships must pass through the Lombok-Macassar Strait
15 extra tankers required to secure demand
3 days added to total voyage
Extra cost of USD $300,000 incurred per tanker
USD $87.9 million incurred in losses

Block in South China Sea
Ships must pass through the Lombok-Macassar Strait
15 extra tankers required to secure demand
3 days added to total voyage
Extra cost of USD $300,000 incurred per tanker
USD $200 million incurred in losses

Block around Indonesian archipelago
Ships must detour around south of Australia
80 extra tankers required to secure demand
20 days added to total voyage
USD $1.2 billion incurred in losses

In terms of oil imports, Akimoto argues that any serious blockage would result in an immediate spike in oil prices. After a period of adjustment, however, the world's surplus capacity of crude oil tankers combined with Japan's domestic stockpile could deter any drastic impact on Japan's economy.

Interference in maritime distribution systems, on the other hand, could lead to heavy losses for Japan's economic activity. Due to demands for increased efficiency and "Just in Time" deliveries, Akimoto argues that delays in shipments could lead to large-scale turmoil in manufacturing processes and result in tremendous economic losses felt all around the world.

Hubs are at the heart of today's shipping network, and as such, the core of distribution centers that links land and sea as well as land and air transportation. In 2004, the Port of Hong Kong handled 22 million TEUs of containers while the Port of Singapore handled 21 million TEUs of containers.

For the Port of Singapore, this means a ship entering almost every two minutes. Akimoto argues that redirecting all these ships would be near impossible. The effect on such a central distribution site would have huge and devastating consequences for the world economy.